Wednesday, 4 December 2013

Iran away from Uranium

   Iran is experiencing; inflation rates of up to 36%, high unemployment and a disastrous economic situation that has been greatly influenced by UN sanctions on its trading liberties, banks and uranium enrichment programs. These sanctions are direct punishments for Iran's breaching of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty for which it is a signatory. It has been enriching uranium to percentages of purity of worrying levels and the instruments of purification i.e. centrifuges has increased, this plus the dishonesty and shadiness (since 2003) of Iran's nuclear program have worried world powers hence the UN decided to sanction Iran.

   Why would Iran try and build capable and immediate nuclear warheads? One obvious reason is its relationship with Israel which is far from peaceful. Iran is supposedly funding Hezbollah which is an extreme group, even considered as a terrorist organization by the US, with intentions of destroying Israel and those who... as you guessed... contradict their religious dogma.

Some estimates of Iran's aid (to Hezbollah) are as high as $200-million annually. - Washington Post
 Both nations have blamed one another for acts of terrorism in the past, for example Israel blamed Iran for attacks on Israeli targets in India, Thailand and Georgia. In one of these attacks the wife of an Israeli diplomat was extremely injured in New Delhi. The commander of the IRGC Mohammed Ali Jafari was quoted:

“If [Israelis] start something, they will be destroyed and it will be the end of the story for them,” Jafari said, according to ISNA.

However I feel that Iran is the bully in this conflict and its former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has never recognized Israel as a legitimate state. He was quoted,

"... the regime that occupies Jerusalem must vanish from the pages of time"' According to the Gaurdian.

He greatly encouraged the enrichment and mining of uranium for a nuclear program which one could only guess as to defend or arm itself against Israel and all of its allies, which includes the US. Iran have only one active nuclear reactor (the Busher I) which was activated in 2010, so it would not make sense to enrich uranium above the standard reactor purity and to keep mining for i furiously if they had peaceful intentions. The political situation of Iran and their poor nuclear energy program hints at malicious intentions.

     A glimmer of hope can be seen for this unstable country as the people of Iran have chosen a new president Hassan Rouhani, who has suggested that his aims for Iran are to improve the economy by removing the crippling UN sanctions and to improve the international perceptions and relations of Iran.
It would be too much to halt Iran's enrichment program, so Mr. Rouhani will simply compromise with the future permanent UN deal. I can only presume that Rouhani is not a complete brain-dead-anti-semetic-Israeli hater like the former president but one who wishes to form mutual trust with world powers. Rouhani must create more transparency in Iran's nuclear programs and halt intense nuclear activity until assurance is given to the US that Iran is not going to use weapons for international bribery and to blow everyone up.

   The interim deal has been established between Iran and the world powers which is a temporary contract of 6 months, which should be implemented in order for more detailed talks to continue on a legit long term deal. This deal if Iran willingly accepts would be a great move in the right direction and the only positive outcome from on-off meetings for about ten years. Here is a summary of the deal;

Iran's Responsibility

  • Halt enrichment of uranium above 5% purity. (Uranium enriched to 3.5-5% can be used for nuclear power reactors, 20% for nuclear medicines and 90% for a nuclear bomb.)
  • "Neutralise" its stockpile of near-20%-enriched uranium, either by diluting it to less than 5% or converting it to a form which cannot be further enriched
  • Not install any more centrifuges (the machines used to enrich uranium)
  • Leave half to three-quarters of centrifuges installed in Natanz and Fordo enrichment facilities inoperable 
  • Not build any more enrichment facilities
  • Not increase its stockpile of 3.5% low-enriched uranium
  • Halt work on the construction of its heavy-water reactor at Arak, not attempt to produce plutonium there (an alternative to highly enriched uranium used for an atomic weapon)
  • Provide daily access to Natanz and Fordo sites to IAEA inspectors and access to other facilities, mines and mills
  • Provide "long-sought" information on the Arak reactor and other data
The World Powers Responsibility:

  • Provide "limited, temporary, targeted, and reversible [sanctions] relief".
  • Not impose further nuclear-related sanctions if Iran meets its commitments
  • Suspend certain sanctions on trade in gold and precious metals, Iran's automotive sector, and its petrochemical exports
  • Licence safety-related repairs and inspections inside Iran for certain Iranian airlines
  • Transfer $4.2bn (£2.6bn) to Iran in installments from sales of its oil (BBC NEWS)
   This deal allows Iran to breathe economically and would shed good light on the new president, both Iran and the outside world would prefer a long term agreement resembling this then any military conflict which could really devastate Iran and potentially effect related terrorist groups if any. 

   I cannot help but feel that nuclear weapons and programs have become a front for conflicting nations, a sort of inflated muscle which scares nations into not aggravating them, destroying them or abusing their territory. However... with the east and Islam being unstable at this time with many regimes being overturned, extremism and radicalism everywhere and the imminent threat of terrorism one must keep a close eye on any development of potential weapons. I completely agree on how the US and the UN are acting on Iran and I also completely agree on the decommissioning of all weapon grade nuclear material. Nuclear war leads to only destruction... if one nation does somehow launch an attack (like North korea say) they would destroy the target but the rest of the world would simply annihilate North Korea. It is MAD... no really it is...  mutually assured destruction...  I do not live in fear of nuclear strikes because if it happens... I die and everyone else will too and if that is true no one would take part. Just to be sure... we have to monitor the hell out of suspicious countries so that they do not beat any other country to the punch.

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